Withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and its geo-strategic implications for India

On February 29, 2020, US signed a peace deal with Taliban, which would entail complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The peace deal will help US to significantly reduce its economic and human resource costs that are attached with military presence in a foreign country. Given the fragile nature of Afghanistan democracy, the country's future minus US presence, is seen with uncertainty and fear.

Even though US presence in Afghanistan subdued Taliban's influence in the country, its network with international terror organizations like Al Qaeda, ISIS and Pak based groups like Jaish-E-Mohammed and Lashker-E-Taiba remained active. For example, the recent attack on a Sikh Temple in Kabul resulting in loss of 27 Sikh lives, is considered to be coordinated effort of multiple terror outfits. 

With Taliban bidding time for complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, changing dynamics in the war ravaged country could be highly disruptive for South Asia. Absence of US troops will give a free hand to Pakistan to dominate Afghanistan. Pakistan's ISI has already played an instrumental role in brokering the peace deal between US and Taliban. The deal has given recognition to Taliban as an authorized stakeholder in Afghanistan's governance. 

At present the terror strikes are limited, however, US withdrawal will remove the pressure valve, which can have a potentially blasting effect. 

China's growing belligerence, coupled with increasing influence of Pakistan in the Afghanistan region, will multiply India's problems. Pakistan's poor financial situation has made it subservient to China's business and geo-political interests in the region. As a result, a joint military op of China, Pak and Taliban against India is highly probable in the next six to nine months. 

Taliban and Pakistan based terror groups have set up multiple joint training centres in southern and central Afghanistan. The purpose will be to launch joint terrorist strikes in different cities of India. As per a recent report by United Nations, nearly 6,500 Pakistani nationals are fighting alongside terrorist groups in Afghanistan.

Prior to withdrawal of troops, US did seek India's help in establishing military presence in the strife torn country. However, Indian leadership looked the other way and now the situation seems more volatile than ever before. Indian military presence in Afghanistan was highly advantageous for the Geo-political security of the region and would have served Indian security interests. Moreover, US was willing to provide financial support and advanced weaponry to India.

According to Dr Subramanian Swamy, benefits of a Indian military presence in Afghanistan significantly outweigh the ensuing costs. On the contrary, costs (in the form of terror strikes) could be significantly high for not setting up military base in the region.  

Hypothetically, India's acceptance of US offer for mediation in Afghanistan would have accrued the following benefits:

• Protection of Indian investment in Afghanistan
• Continuous monitoring of terrorist activities in the region
• Subdued influence of Pakistan in Afghan politics
• Prevention of the formation of a coalition or alliance of terrorist organizations, which could be adverse to India's security interests
• Rise in global standing and India's emergence as a strong regional power
• Control over China's aggressive maneuvers in Ladakh and other border regions.

In national interest, current ruling dispensation needs to realign its strategy towards Afghanistan. Any confusion with respect to India's geo-political strategy and the path forward may result in isolation and instability in the region.

How India's first Prime Minister, Nehru drifted India away from United States after Independence?

Post India's independence, US was ideologically inclined to develop close and strategic ties with India. US perceived India to be a natural partner since both the countries shared democratic values. 

During the same phase, Mao Zedong, leader of CCP, took control of China in a military coup in 1949. This meant a drastic shift in China's political ideology in favor of Communism. Such transition wasn't acceptable to Americans, who then became desperate to expel China out of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and were willing to give this seat to India.

As a result, then US secretary of state, John Foster, made the offer of UNSC seat to Indian Ambassador, Vijay lakshmi Pandit. When the US offer was communicated to Nehru, he declined it terming it as a trap by Americans. Despite America's friendly overtures, Nehru remained adamant over allowing China to retain the UNSC seat, under the pretext that not doing so would hurt Chinese sentiments. 

Apart from UNSC seat, US was willing to include India in its prestigious Marshall Plan which was a dedicated economic recovery package for the entire Europe and Japan after World War II. Acceptance of this offer would have propelled India into the league of developed nations within 10-15 years. However, Nehru declined this offer under the garb of Non-aligned movement, rather he chose to adopt Socialist economic model of five years plan.

Nehru failed to see US preference of India over China, which could have catapulted our country to world stage. On the contrary, he preferred to restrict India's role as that of a regional power in Asia. Nehru's reluctance to accept American friendship convinced US that India is most likely sitting in Soviet camp.  

Therefore, developing relationship with rogue nations like Pakistan became a geo-political compulsion for US. In an era, where world was waking up to a Cold war between two strong blocs, establishing presence in South Asia was essential for US. Consequently, Pakistan became a US ally and received considerable financial aid and weaponry in return, which was grossly misused. 

Nehru's restricted vision and affinity towards socialism stagnated India's economic, political and technological stature in the world. Hope history doesn't repeat!    

CBI Enquiry in Sushant Singh Rajput murder mystery is the need of the hour!

Sushant Singh Rajput woke up in the morning, went for a walk, spent some time on his Playstation, took a glass of juice, went inside his room and then committed suicide?? Even a layman can understand that the suicide doesn't seem to be a perfect conclusion of prior sequence of events. 

Shockingly, Mumbai Police arrived at such a pre-determined conclusion even before it began investigations. The bright and an upcoming actor didn't even leave a suicide note behind, then what was the hurry on the part of the Police to declare Sushant's death as a suicide? 

Only after strong public pressure, Mumbai police was forced to initiate investigation in Sushant Singh Rajput's so-called suicide. Nonetheless, Police summons and consequent interrogation of Bollywood biggies looks like an eyewash to douse the rising flames of justice among public.

In a recent letter to PM Modi, Dr Swamy demanded PM's intervention in the matter as the Maharashtra state government seems reluctant in handing over the case to CBI.  A CBI enquiry will possibly help to restore public confidence in such a sensitive and high profile case. A simple instruction by PM to Maharashtra state governor could possibly do the job. Dr Swamy's intervention will undoubtedly increase pressure on Mumbai Police. According to Dr Swamy, simultaneous investigations by Mumbai Police and Bihar Police is not feasible, therefore, CBI enquiry is the only way forward. 

Ace lawyer, Ishkaran Bhandari, who has fought many cases under Dr Subramanian Swamy, has sent letters to Mumbai Police over the nature of investigations. Through his letters, Ishkaran has appealed to Police to cover the following points in the investigation process:

• The Police shall collect, preserve and inspect all the cell phone data from mobile towers located in the vicinity of Sushant Singh's apartment. Negligence in this regard will result in loss of vital information.
• As per some sources, Mumbai Police didn't even seal Sushant Singh Rajput's apartment after his death. Such a lapse in the investigation process is fraught with risks such as loss of clinching evidence.
• A thorough forensic examination of items such as laptops, smartphones and other gadgets must be done.

Sushant's case has striking similarities with Jiah Khan suicide case. Both actors were in a jovial mood before their so-called suicide and did not exhibit signs of depression, which has been so vociferously claimed as the cause of suicide.

Just four days prior to Sushant's death, his ex-Manager, Disha Salian also died after falling from 14th floor of a building in Malad West. However, Mumbai police completed investigations and declared Disha's death as a freak accident within THREE days. This implies that Disha's case was closed one day before Sushant Singh Rajput's suicide. One wonders what was the reason to close Disha Salian's case in such a haphazard manner?? Is it a coincidence that Disha's case was closed just a day before Sushant Singh Rajput's death? It is another matter that her accidental death also looks similar to Divya Bharti's suicide. 

Interestingly, the late actress' husband Sajid Nadiadwala personally wrote a letter to Home Ministry to impose a ban on circulation of Sushant Singh Rajput's suicide photos. Is this an attempt to suppress evidence that proves Sushant's death as nothing but a cold blooded murder?

Mumbai Police earlier attempted to hush up Sushant Singh Rajput's matter as a mere suicide, which shakes public trust in its ability to conduct an impartial probe. Since, Bollywood is perceived to be close to underworld, Sushant Singh Rajput's case has nationwide implications. Therefore, an impartial CBI enquiry is the need of the hour!!  

Rajiv Gandhi Foundation scam was first exposed by Dr Swamy in 2015

In 2015, Dr Swamy had filed a complaint with Urban Development Ministry regarding RGF's illegal occupation of a building at Raisana road. The building was initially meant to be used as Congress headquarters, however, in 1991, Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, headed by Sonia Gandhi, usurped this prime property located in Delhi. 

Dr Swamy also uncovered the financial discrepancies and dubious funding pattern of RGF. For example, RGF's shady sources of donations (foreign embassies and Zakir Naik) were highlighted many times by Dr Swamy.  

Zakir Naik, known for his provocative and communal speeches, was brainwashing peaceful elements through his channel, PeaceTV. Only after Dhaka Cafe blast, the government woke up to reality and then banned his channel. However, Dr Swamy had already exposed Zakir Naik's ₹50 lakh donation to RGF in 2011, which is now even confirmed by ED's investigations. 

RGF has also received donations from foreign embassies (like China) for a long period of time. These devastating realities of Rajiv Gandhi Foundation were exposed by Dr Subramanian Swamy way back in 2015 and then 2016. Surprisingly, BJP government did not deem it necessary to probe the activities of RGF. 

Following collage provides details of Dr Swamy's Tweets from 2015 till 2020, where he has constantly warned about RGF's suspicious activities.

It is now proved that Dr Swamy is the original whistle blower of RGF scam and in BJP's moment of distress, his exposure has somewhat rescued the party from the current mess. How else, could BJP divert public attention from it's failure to control Covid-19 spread and the goof-up in its foreign policy with China?

Without doubt, BJP's policy has been to drum beat against Congress scams, which will help the party to dodge serious questions regarding it's failures. Five years have passed since Dr Swamy exposed Rajiv Gandhi Foundation scam, however BJP only woke up now??

While the government has set up an inter-ministerial committee to investigate the RGF matter, BJP's track record suggests that real action still looks like a daydream. 

Raghuram Rajan's past conduct as RBI Governor is questionable

Former RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan inflicted serious damage to Indian economy due to his flawed monetary policies. Rajan's prescriptions to contain inflation hampered growth in the MSME sector. 

For example, raising repo rates, to counter inflation, subjugated demand for business loans, which deteriorated the investment climate. Simultaneously, Rajan had reduced the interest rates on domestic saving schemes (such as FD, NSC etc) that led to erosion of incomes of retired personnel and low-income households.

Lower interest on savings dis-incentivised households to invest in saving schemes, which dried up availability of funds for businesses, as savings are a major source of domestic loans. 

Few business enterprises used interest arbitrage to earn profits. For example, they availed loans from foreign banks at lower rates and then lent money to domestic players at prevailing interest rates in the market. Therefore Rajan's monetary policy benefited foreign lenders and diminished the financial flexibility of local businesses. 

Despite Rajan's global exposure and previous work experience, his knowledge and application as an economist is below average. He has been propped by a cartel which plans to control the flow of finances across the world. 

Dr Swamy had already warned about Rajan as a servant of foreign masters who want to wreck Indian economy. His recent tweet also corroborates that Raghuram Rajan is just a poster boy who lacks originality and his statements will fail to garner any traction in US. The tweet is given below:

Assessing Rajan's past conduct is essential to make a judgement about his seriousness to deliver for the country.  So let's delve deeper and under the facts behind Dr Swamy's remarks on Rajan: 

Rajan is a green card holder

Nothing wrong if someone holds a green card, however, continuing to renew American citizenship while holding a high post in government of India is unacceptable. Renewing American citizenship means that Rajan's heart still lies America and as a result, he will not be able to do justice to India.

Rajan wanted to introduce Islamic banking

As an RBI Governor, Rajan was fanatically in favour of Islamic banking and was keen to set up dedicated Islamic banks across India. However, his proposal was scuttled due to Dr Swamy's timely intervention. 

Hushed up ED's probe into Aircel-Maxis Scam

As an RBI Governor, Rajan tried his best to hush up ED's investigations in the Aircel-Maxis scam. The agencies were trying to establish money trail of Karti Chidambaram's firms in Singapore. Rather than cooperating with ED, Rajan alerted Chidambaram about ED's movements. This single act of Rajan motivated Chidambaram to attempt tampering of evidence. 

Leaked sensitive information to private individuals via personal e-mail address

During his tenure, Raghuram Rajan has also shared some sensitive information on Indian economy through his personal e-mail address. This is totally unbecoming of the post of RBI Governor, rather it is treachery against a country that gave respect and  honor to Rajan. 

Rajan is a member of Group of 30

Raghuram Rajan is a member of a US based group known as "Group of 30" (www. group30.org) whose main objective is to maintain US dominance over world economy. Therefore, Rajan's concern over Indian economic matters is a farce.

Despite the above evidences, Rajan continues to enjoy goodwill among media friendly channels and leaders of the past regime. His recent rants are meant to gain attention in order to fulfill a pre-defined agenda. 

References:

Unpublished letter of Swamy to Rajan accusing him of trying to hush-up ED’s probe of Aircel Maxis scam 

Swamy – Six reasons on why Rajan’s term should not be renewed

Dr Swamy's life is an open book, cynics are playing politics

Dr Swamy is one of the most highly scrutinized politicians of modern India. Being an anti-corruption crusader and Hindutva warrior, curiosity about his life is natural, however, curiosity shall not transform into cynicism due to over-analysis.

Dr Swamy's forthright views on different matters have always tormented his adversaries within and outside BJP. Since his opponents don't have anything concrete to target him, they run malicious social media campaigns to dent his public image. However, public also has a responsibility to not indulge in trivial allegations based on rumors. One must have the ability to understand subtle differences and not end up as victims of propaganda.

In a world of fluctuating political perceptions, hired spin artists twist Dr Swamy's honest views and past associations to suit the agenda of their paymasters. For instance, Dr Swamy's friendship with Rajiv Gandhi has been twisted multiple times to show him as a Congress man, which is a blatant lie deliberately spread to poison naive minds. 

Even during Chandrashekhar's time, Dr Swamy was first offered PMship by Rajiv Gandhi which he refused because he knew the pitfalls of accepting such an offer. Former PM PVN Rao had also invited Dr Swamy to join Congress, however, he politely declined, stating that Congress is a family holding party and PVN Rao was a tenant. 

Despite several attempts, Dr Swamy avoided joining  Congress due to some serious reservations he had about the party.

On the contrary, many BJP leaders are close relatives of Congress leaders, which gives an impression of a fixed match. Some of the examples are given below:

• Ex-FM, late Arun Jaitley was the son-in-law of Late Congress leader Girdhari Lal Dogra from J&K. 
• BJP's law minister, Mr Ravi Shankar Prasad and Mr Rajiv Shukla are close relatives.
• Current FM Nirmala Sitharaman's in-laws have a strong Congress background. Her husband, Parakala Prabhakar, has switched many parties from Congress to BJP and then from BJP to TeluguDesam Party.

Apparently, having relatives from other side of the political spectrum isn't a barrier for someone to become a Cabinet Minister in BJP government. Therefore, constant targeting of Dr Swamy, merely due to his friendship with Rajeev Gandhi, is due to the insecurity of selfish political leaders. Ironically, the emotionally charged followers of political parties stay silent on these high profile connections and avoid to discuss them in public domain.   

MSME sector requires radical policy measures for tangible recovery

Indian MSME sector accounts for 30% of India's GDP and 40% of India's exports. It is a major source of employment in the informal economy of the country. MSME sector was struggling with multiple challenges before Covid-19 crisis, however, the current pandemic only amplified the issues in this sector. 

Current state of MSME sector is primarily due to flawed monetary and fiscal policies of the past and present governments. It all started with import of so-called foreign educated Indian origin economists like Raghuram Rajan, who mindlessly applied western economic theories in Indian context. 

During his tenure as RBI governor, Rajan had adopted self-defeating monetary measures that triggered stress in the MSME sector. For example, increasing interest rates for business loans while reducing the interest rates on saving schemes like Fixed deposits. This single step adversely impacted the earning capacity of small income households which form the core of MSME sector. 

Majority of MSME enterprises are small-scale business entities that are managed by sole proprietors. Monthly earnings of these enterprises are dependent on the level of economic activities during a month. Covid-19 induced lockdown resulted in a complete halt of their business operations. This has put considerable strain on the financial resources of such enterprises.

Lockdown undeniably deepened the stress among MSMEs, which led to the emergence of following issues:

• Limited opportunities for revenue generation
• Higher overheads in the form of factory rent, wages of permanent employees & maintenance of machinery
• Higher cost of procuring funds from formal or informal channels of funding
• Delay in payments on receivables from large companies

The above issues have created a significant liquidity crunch in the MSME sector. Stimulus packages in the form of loan melas & credit guarantees have existed earlier and don't seem to fetch the desired results. Resolution of these issues require out-of-box thinking in government's fiscal and monetary policy measures.

So far, government measures seem subjective that have failed to address the gap between policy and implementation. Such negligence could result in shutdown of business operations of small enterprises. 

Since a large segment of MSME workforce is part of the informal sector, a lot of workers faced the brunt of job losses during lock-down. As the small enterprises were grappling with a changing environment, they were forced to prune their workforce. One more setback to an ailing MSME sector will increase unemployment levels and push a large percentage of unorganized workforce below poverty line. 

Whats the solution?

According to BJP leader Dr Subramanian Swamy, MSME sector can be revived by adopting following measures:

• Lowering interest rates on business loans, which will improve domestic investment levels. 
• Print new currency notes and distribute cash among low-income households through direct cash transfers. 
• This will provide relief to low income groups and also help to stimulate consumer spending. 
• Withdraw GST compliance for one year and abolish income tax to improve sentiment. 

Rescuing MSME sector will help to arrest contraction in demand and restore positive growth in the economy. The government needs to move away from protectionist measures in a challenging business environment, else Indian economy may witness an extended period of low demand.

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Note: 

The above article is inspired by the ideas and suggestions of current BJP leader and eminent economist, Dr Subramanian Swamy. It has also used secondary resources for the purpose of collecting and presenting information.