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Withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and its geo-strategic implications for India

On February 29, 2020, US signed a peace deal with Taliban, which would entail complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The peace deal will help US to significantly reduce its economic and human resource costs that are attached with military presence in a foreign country. Given the fragile nature of Afghanistan democracy, the country's future minus US presence, is seen with uncertainty and fear.


Even though US presence in Afghanistan subdued Taliban's influence in the country, its network with international terror organizations like Al Qaeda, ISIS and Pak based groups like Jaish-E-Mohammed and Lashker-E-Taiba remained active. For example, the recent attack on a Sikh Temple in Kabul resulting in loss of 27 Sikh lives, is considered to be coordinated effort of multiple terror outfits. 

With Taliban bidding time for complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, changing dynamics in the war ravaged country could be highly disruptive for South Asia. Absence of US troops will give a free hand to Pakistan to dominate Afghanistan. Pakistan's ISI has already played an instrumental role in brokering the peace deal between US and Taliban. The deal has given recognition to Taliban as an authorized stakeholder in Afghanistan's governance. 

At present the terror strikes are limited, however, US withdrawal will remove the pressure valve, which can have a potentially blasting effect. 

China's growing belligerence, coupled with increasing influence of Pakistan in the Afghanistan region, will multiply India's problems. Pakistan's poor financial situation has made it subservient to China's business and geo-political interests in the region. As a result, a joint military op of China, Pak and Taliban against India is highly probable in the next six to nine months. 

Taliban and Pakistan based terror groups have set up multiple joint training centres in southern and central Afghanistan. The purpose will be to launch joint terrorist strikes in different cities of India. As per a recent report by United Nations, nearly 6,500 Pakistani nationals are fighting alongside terrorist groups in Afghanistan.

Prior to withdrawal of troops, US did seek India's help in establishing military presence in the strife torn country. However, Indian leadership looked the other way and now the situation seems more volatile than ever before. Indian military presence in Afghanistan was highly advantageous for the Geo-political security of the region and would have served Indian security interests. Moreover, US was willing to provide financial support and advanced weaponry to India.

According to Dr Subramanian Swamy, benefits of a Indian military presence in Afghanistan significantly outweigh the ensuing costs. On the contrary, costs (in the form of terror strikes) could be significantly high for not setting up military base in the region.  

Hypothetically, India's acceptance of US offer for mediation in Afghanistan would have accrued the following benefits:
  • Protection of Indian investment in Afghanistan
  • Continuous monitoring of terrorist activities in the region
  • Subdued influence of Pakistan in Afghan politics
  • Prevention of the formation of a coalition or alliance of terrorist organizations, which could be adverse to India's security interests
  • Rise in global standing and India's emergence as a strong regional power
  • Control over China's aggressive maneuvers in Ladakh and other border regions.
In national interest, current ruling dispensation needs to realign its strategy towards Afghanistan. Any confusion with respect to India's geo-political strategy and the path forward may result in isolation and instability in the region.
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